Werder Bremen 4-1 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.74
Over 2.5
51%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.82
2-3 Goals
35%
1.74
4-5 Goals
28%
3.88
6+ Goals
8%
17.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.18
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
15%
4.85
X/2
10%
6.56
X/X
15%
4.23
2/1
5%
28.5
2/2
12%
4.88
2/X
5%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
42%
+4.5pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.5pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-2.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
54%
-4.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
46%
+4.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.3pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -22%
1.56/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.35
+4% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / +4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
312 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 78%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
19.8 Crosses 21.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Werder Bremen
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Union Berlin
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.69 xG 1.08
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
379 Passes 306
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
28.10.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
27.05.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
25.01.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 1-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
24.04.2021 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-1 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
02.01.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-2 HT 0-2 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Werder Bremen
4-1
AWAY Union Berlin
2.39 xG 1.34
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
440 Passes 354
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen swept aside Union Berlin 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Werder Bremen as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Werder Bremen had 54% of the ball to Union Berlin's 46%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 2.39 to 1.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.67 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?

Werder Bremen 4-1 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Werder Bremen 47%, draw 26%, Union Berlin 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Werder Bremen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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