Hertha Berlin 1-0 Greuther Fürth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
4.49
2-3 Goals
39%
1.91
4-5 Goals
24%
2.83
6+ Goals
11%
7.89
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.49 — our 26% vs market 17.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.57
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
14%
4.87
X/2
6%
7.85
X/X
15%
5.85
2/1
7%
21.15
2/2
19%
5.32
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-9.0pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.9pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.7pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hertha Berlin EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 31%
-14% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.66/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.58
+1% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
22.9 Crosses 15.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hertha Berlin
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Greuther Fürth
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.49 xG 1.62
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
334 Passes 315
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2024 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 2-1 HT 1-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL2
11.02.2024 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 1-2 HT 0-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL2
26.08.2023 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 5-0 HT 2-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
12.02.2022 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 2-1 HT 1-0 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL1
17.09.2021 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 2-1 HT 0-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL1
14.03.2011 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 0-2 HT 0-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hertha Berlin
1-0
AWAY Greuther Fürth
1.36 xG 0.46
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
354 Passes 336
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hertha Berlin vs Greuther Fürth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hertha Berlin edged past Greuther Fürth 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Hertha Berlin found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Hertha Berlin had 50% of the ball to Greuther Fürth's 50%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.36 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hertha Berlin had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Hertha Berlin and 1.00 for Greuther Fürth.

What was the final score of Hertha Berlin vs Greuther Fürth?

Hertha Berlin 1-0 Greuther Fürth in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hertha Berlin vs Greuther Fürth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hertha Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Hertha Berlin 40%, draw 29%, Greuther Fürth 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hertha Berlin), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hertha Berlin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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