Nürnberg 1-3 Elversberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.75
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
39%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.23
Over 2.5
48%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.41
2-3 Goals
46%
1.88
4-5 Goals
20%
2.77
6+ Goals
8%
7.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.41 — our 26% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
23%
+11.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.4pp
39%
Away Win
54%
-14.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.6pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Elversberg EU Bookmakers 58%
-8% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -68% / -68%
1.14/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/0.77
-22% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +22%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
234 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 490 · 84%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
18.3 Crosses 34.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nürnberg
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Elversberg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.46 xG 1.29
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
319 Passes 383
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
06.12.2024 Elversberg Elversberg 2-1 HT 1-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
11.05.2024 Nürnberg Nürnberg 3-0 HT 1-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL2
10.12.2023 Elversberg Elversberg 0-1 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
27.10.2010 Elversberg Elversberg 0-3 HT 0-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nürnberg
1-3
AWAY Elversberg
0.80 xG 0.61
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
341 Passes 327
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 15
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nürnberg vs Elversberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elversberg saw off Nürnberg 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 39%) promised a tight game; Elversberg found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Nürnberg had 51% of the ball to Elversberg's 49%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 0.80 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Nürnberg had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Nürnberg and 0.50 for Elversberg.

What was the final score of Nürnberg vs Elversberg?

Nürnberg 1-3 Elversberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nürnberg vs Elversberg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Elversberg win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Nürnberg 34%, draw 26%, Elversberg 39%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Elversberg), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Elversberg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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