Wellington Phoenix 0-2 Perth Glory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 4 May 2025

Wellington Phoenix
0-2 HT 0-1
Perth Glory
📅04/05/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.09
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.51
Over 2.5
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.43
No
49%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.33
2-3 Goals
40%
2.01
4-5 Goals
25%
2.62
6+ Goals
11%
6.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.98
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1 EV+ ✗
20%
5.56
X/2
12%
6.89
X/X
10%
6.12
2/1
7%
21.45
2/2
12%
4.14
2/X
6%
12.95
Value flag · X/1 at 5.56 — our 20% vs market 14.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Wellington Phoenix win — 46%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
44%
+2.3pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
31%
Away Win
32%
-1.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
66%
-14.7pp
49%
BTTS No
34%
+14.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wellington Phoenix v Perth Glory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 36%
+14% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -25%
1.48/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.62
+4% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
389 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 82%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
16.2 Crosses 18.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wellington Phoenix
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Perth Glory
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.78 xG 1.09
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
412 Passes 418
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.10.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-2 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
24.02.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-0 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
14.01.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 3-4 HT 1-2 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
28.10.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-1 HT 1-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
28.01.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-2 HT 2-1 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
23.12.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS

Wellington Phoenix 0-2 Perth Glory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wellington Phoenix
0-2
AWAY Perth Glory
0.94 xG 2.32
59% Ball Possession 41%
9 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 2
518 Passes 340
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Perth Glory beat Wellington Phoenix 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Wellington Phoenix at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 59% of the ball to Perth Glory's 41%, shots finished 9-18, expected goals 0.94 to 2.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 1.17 for Perth Glory.

What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory?

Wellington Phoenix 0-2 Perth Glory in the Australia - A-League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wellington Phoenix win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 46%, draw 23%, Perth Glory 31%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Wellington Phoenix) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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