Cherno More Varna 1-1 Arda Kardzhali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.25
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
Over 2.5
38%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.09
No
62%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
20%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
41%
-5.0pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.4pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.5pp
38%
BTTS Yes
44%
-5.5pp
62%
BTTS No
56%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 32%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.69/0.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/0.77
+54% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +45%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.04.2025 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 4-0 HT 3-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
15.09.2024 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-1 HT 0-1 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
07.11.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-0 HT 0-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
15.07.2023 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 3-3 HT 0-1 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
03.05.2023 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 2-2 HT 0-1 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
1-1
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 4
1 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna and Arda Kardzhali shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 30% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 53% of the ball to Arda Kardzhali's 47%, shots finished 10-4.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Cherno More Varna and 2.00 for Arda Kardzhali.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?

Cherno More Varna 1-1 Arda Kardzhali in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 36%, draw 30%, Arda Kardzhali 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cherno More Varna), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
4 May 2025
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