Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Botev Plovdiv v Spartak Varna — Team-Based Signals
Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Spartak Varna
BUL1
Botev Plovdiv 3-2 Spartak Varna — Actual Match Statistics
Botev Plovdiv edged past Spartak Varna 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Botev Plovdiv as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Botev Plovdiv had 62% of the ball to Spartak Varna's 38%, shots finished 17-10.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Spartak Varna led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 1.00 for Spartak Varna.
What was the final score of Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
Botev Plovdiv 3-2 Spartak Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
Before kick-off our model rated a Botev Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Botev Plovdiv 50%, draw 25%, Spartak Varna 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botev Plovdiv), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.