NAC Breda 1-3 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.61
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
3.23
6+ Goals
11%
11.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.98
1/2
8%
32.0
1/X
5%
12.3
X/1
14%
5.2
X/2
10%
7.17
X/X
10%
4.82
2/1
7%
24.65
2/2
15%
4.95
2/X
8%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.0pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.6pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.7pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 32%
-13% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.49/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.84
+5% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
299 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
22.7 Crosses 15.9
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
2W-2D-2L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.96 xG 1.53
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
276 Passes 416
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 33
16 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
20.10.2024 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-2 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
17.03.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
19.11.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-2 HT 0-2 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL2
19.01.2022 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-1 HT 1-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOK
15.05.2019 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-0 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
15.12.2018 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
1-3
AWAY PEC Zwolle
0.89 xG 1.56
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
336 Passes 344
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 29
20 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PEC Zwolle got the better of NAC Breda 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was NAC Breda at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, NAC Breda had 51% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 49%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 0.89 to 1.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for NAC Breda and 1.00 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle?

NAC Breda 1-3 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 44%, draw 24%, PEC Zwolle 32%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (NAC Breda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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