Tobol 2-1 Kyzyl-Zhar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.19
No
61%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
57%
-3.3pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.4pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+0.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.0pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.0pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tobol EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Kyzyl-Zhar EU Bookmakers 21%
+7% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.79/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.30
+13% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +31%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
295 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tobol
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Kyzyl-Zhar
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
11.08.2024 Tobol Tobol 1-2 HT 1-1 Kyzyl-Zhar Kyzyl-Zhar KAZP
31.03.2024 Kyzyl-Zhar Kyzyl-Zhar 0-0 HT 0-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
27.09.2023 Kyzyl-Zhar Kyzyl-Zhar 1-1 HT 0-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
03.06.2023 Tobol Tobol 1-0 HT 0-0 Kyzyl-Zhar Kyzyl-Zhar KAZP
26.06.2022 Kyzyl-Zhar Kyzyl-Zhar 1-3 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
17.03.2022 Tobol Tobol 2-0 HT 1-0 Kyzyl-Zhar Kyzyl-Zhar KAZP
POST-MATCH Tobol vs Kyzyl-Zhar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol squeezed past Kyzyl-Zhar 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tobol as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tobol had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tobol and 0.67 for Kyzyl-Zhar.

What was the final score of Tobol vs Kyzyl-Zhar?

Tobol 2-1 Kyzyl-Zhar in the Kazakistan - Super League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tobol vs Kyzyl-Zhar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tobol win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Tobol 54%, draw 28%, Kyzyl-Zhar 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tobol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tobol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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