Deportivo Pasto 1-0 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.52
Over 2.5
41%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.27
No
56%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.8pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.3pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
40%
+4.0pp
56%
BTTS No
60%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -8%
1.30/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.43
+8% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
287 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 75%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
18.3 Crosses 14.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Pasto
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.90 xG 0.90
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
186 Passes 405
68% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 8
19 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
05.03.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Pasto
1-0
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
0.70 xG 0.89
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
269 Passes 258
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 12
27 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Pasto nicked a narrow win over Fortaleza CEIF 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Deportivo Pasto as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Deportivo Pasto had 52% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 48%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 0.70 to 0.89.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Deportivo Pasto had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 0.00 for Fortaleza CEIF.

What was the final score of Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Deportivo Pasto 1-0 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Pasto win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Pasto 48%, draw 28%, Fortaleza CEIF 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Pasto), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Pasto) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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