Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 Gornik Zabrze — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
33%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.22
2-3 Goals
37%
1.86
4-5 Goals
26%
2.83
6+ Goals
11%
8.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.07
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
9%
14.35
X/1
15%
4.36
X/2
10%
10.35
X/X
8%
6.06
2/1
7%
20.8
2/2 EV+ ✗
16%
7.74
2/X
8%
15.95
Value flag · 2/2 at 7.74 — our 16% vs market 9.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
57%
-14.9pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.2pp
33%
Away Win
20%
+12.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 23%
-5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
1.78/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.42
+16% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
428 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 78%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
20.8 Crosses 14.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.69 xG 1.34
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
338 Passes 377
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 0-2 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
02.03.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-1 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
27.08.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-1 HT 3-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
11.03.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 HT 2-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
26.08.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-1 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
14.02.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-2 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
1-1
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
2.80 xG 0.46
51% Ball Possession 49%
25 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
349 Passes 320
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
63 Box Touches 10
14 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Gornik Zabrze
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok and Gornik Zabrze shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Jagiellonia Bialystok at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 51% of the ball to Gornik Zabrze's 49%, shots finished 25-8, expected goals 2.80 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.00 for Gornik Zabrze.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Gornik Zabrze?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 Gornik Zabrze in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Gornik Zabrze?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 42%, draw 25%, Gornik Zabrze 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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