Arouca 0-0 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 4 May 2025

Arouca
0-0 HT 0-0
Casa Pia
📅04/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✓
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Arouca vs Casa Pia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.87
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.92
6+ Goals
9%
17.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 31% vs market 28.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.89
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
10%
4.73
X/2
11%
7.31
X/X
12%
4.39
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
15%
5.66
2/X
9%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-7.8pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.3pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+6.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Casa Pia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 30%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.33/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.23
-5% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
370 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 76%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
18.1 Crosses 16.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6

Arouca vs Casa Pia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Casa Pia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.88 xG 0.89
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
408 Passes 303
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
11 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.12.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 3-1 HT 2-0 Arouca Arouca POR
18.02.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
17.09.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
25.02.2023 Arouca Arouca 2-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
04.09.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
09.05.2021 Arouca Arouca 2-1 HT 1-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR2

Arouca 0-0 Casa Pia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
0-0
AWAY Casa Pia
1.00 xG 0.27
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 0
374 Passes 191
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
14 Box Touches 9
23 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca and Casa Pia played out a goalless draw. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Arouca had 63% of the ball to Casa Pia's 37%, shots finished 15-4, expected goals 1.00 to 0.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Casa Pia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Arouca and 1.00 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Casa Pia?

Arouca 0-0 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Arouca 38%, draw 29%, Casa Pia 33%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Arouca) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arouca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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