FK Ufa 1-0 Neftekhimik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
35%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.16
No
58%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-6.0pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.0pp
35%
Away Win
27%
+7.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.5pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Ufa EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftekhimik EU Bookmakers 30%
-9% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -12%
1.40/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/0.96
+11% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
295 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Ufa
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Neftekhimik
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.07.2024 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 2-1 HT 0-1 FK Ufa FK Ufa RUS1
06.11.2022 FK Ufa FK Ufa 0-0 HT 0-0 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Ufa
1-0
AWAY Neftekhimik
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FK Ufa vs Neftekhimik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Ufa nicked a narrow win over Neftekhimik 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; FK Ufa found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, FK Ufa had 46% of the ball to Neftekhimik's 54%, shots finished 7-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Neftekhimik led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for FK Ufa and 1.00 for Neftekhimik.

What was the final score of FK Ufa vs Neftekhimik?

FK Ufa 1-0 Neftekhimik in the Russia - FNL on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Ufa vs Neftekhimik?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Ufa win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split FK Ufa 38%, draw 27%, Neftekhimik 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FK Ufa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FK Ufa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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