Polessya 1-2 Oleksandria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ukraine - Premier League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.8
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
43%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.54
Over 2.5
51%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.19
No
53%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
32%
-4.2pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.6pp
43%
Away Win
36%
+6.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
61%
-12.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
39%
+12.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.0pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polessya EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Oleksandria EU Bookmakers 40%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +2%
1.00/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.11
-1% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
310 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polessya
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Oleksandria
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
03.11.2024 Oleksandria Oleksandria 1-0 HT 0-0 Polessya Polessya UKR
09.03.2024 Polessya Polessya 1-2 HT 0-1 Oleksandria Oleksandria UKR
02.11.2023 Polessya Polessya 0-0 HT 0-0 Oleksandria Oleksandria UKRK
26.08.2023 Oleksandria Oleksandria 0-3 HT 0-0 Polessya Polessya UKR
POST-MATCH Polessya vs Oleksandria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oleksandria edged past Polessya 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Oleksandria as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Oleksandria led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Polessya and 0.75 for Oleksandria.

What was the final score of Polessya vs Oleksandria?

Polessya 1-2 Oleksandria in the Ukraine - Premier League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polessya vs Oleksandria?

Before kick-off our model rated an Oleksandria win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Polessya 28%, draw 29%, Oleksandria 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Oleksandria), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Oleksandria) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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