Ural 0-1 Shinnik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 4 May 2026

Ural
0-1 HT 0-1
Shinnik
📅04/05/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
22%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.64
Over
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
43%
4-5
20%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
52%
Home Win
48%
+4.7pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
22%
Away Win
25%
-3.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.6pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ural The Market 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Shinnik The Market 29%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -13%
1.44/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.20
+3% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
339 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ural
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Shinnik
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.07.2025 Shinnik Shinnik 0-1 HT 0-1 Ural Ural RUS1
10.11.2024 Shinnik Shinnik 0-2 HT 0-1 Ural Ural RUS1
20.07.2024 Ural Ural 2-1 HT 0-1 Shinnik Shinnik RUS1
24.06.2020 Shinnik Shinnik 0-2 HT 0-1 Ural Ural RUK
20.09.2017 Shinnik Shinnik 3-0 HT 2-0 Ural Ural RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ural
0-1
AWAY Shinnik
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Ural vs Shinnik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shinnik squeezed past Ural 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Ural at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ural had 66% of the ball to Shinnik's 34%, shots finished 16-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Ural had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Ural and 0.80 for Shinnik.

What was the final score of Ural vs Shinnik?

Ural 0-1 Shinnik in the Russia - FNL on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ural vs Shinnik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ural win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Ural 52%, draw 26%, Shinnik 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ural) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ural) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS1 More Russia - FNL
4 May 2026
19:30 Arsenal Tula vs Rotor Volgograd Analysis →