Avusturya 2-1 Sırbistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 4 Jun 2024

📅04/06/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
3.14
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
15.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.92
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
12.75
X/1
14%
4.71
X/2
8%
7.05
X/X
10%
4.32
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
14%
5.18
2/X
11%
13.15
Value flag · 1/X at 12.75 — our 12% vs market 4.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-5.6pp
33%
Draw
28%
+5.0pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avusturya EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Sırbistan EU Bookmakers 31%
-7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -30%
1.78/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/2.04
-1% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -90% / -44%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 80%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.4
25.5 Crosses 12.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avusturya
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Sırbistan
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
2.23 xG 0.69
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
359 Passes 292
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 6
5 Yellow Cards 0
06.10.2017 Avusturya Avusturya 3-2 HT 1-1 Sırbistan Sırbistan DKE
09.10.2016 Sırbistan Sırbistan 3-2 HT 2-1 Avusturya Avusturya DKE
06.06.2009 Sırbistan Sırbistan 1-0 HT 1-0 Avusturya Avusturya DKE
15.10.2008 Avusturya Avusturya 1-3 HT 0-3 Sırbistan Sırbistan DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avusturya
2-1
AWAY Sırbistan
0.42 xG 1.01
53% Ball Possession 47%
5 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 6
364 Passes 311
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
10 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Avusturya vs Sırbistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avusturya edged past Sırbistan 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 33% / 28% — and on the day Avusturya made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avusturya had 53% of the ball to Sırbistan's 47%, shots finished 5-7, expected goals 0.42 to 1.01 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sırbistan.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sırbistan led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Avusturya and 2.25 for Sırbistan.

What was the final score of Avusturya vs Sırbistan?

Avusturya 2-1 Sırbistan in the Friendlies on 04/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avusturya vs Sırbistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avusturya win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Avusturya 39%, draw 33%, Sırbistan 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avusturya), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avusturya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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