Birmingham Legion 1-1 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 4 Jun 2026

Birmingham Legion
1-1 HT 1-1
Louisville City
📅04/06/2026 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USL Championship – 2026

Birmingham Legion vs Louisville City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.46
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
51%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.63
No
44%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.7
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
27%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
26%
+2.8pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.3pp
51%
Away Win
50%
+1.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.4pp
44%
BTTS No
43%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Birmingham Legion v Louisville City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 54%
-12% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.93/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/0.95
-49% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
336 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
15.4 Crosses 23.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Birmingham Legion vs Louisville City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham Legion
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Louisville City
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.20 xG 1.73
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
332 Passes 324
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.06.2025 Louisville City Louisville City 4-2 HT 3-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
16.03.2025 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-1 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
30.06.2024 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-4 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
30.03.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 5-0 HT 2-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
20.08.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 2-0 HT 2-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
23.07.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 1-2 HT 1-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP

Birmingham Legion 1-1 Louisville City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham Legion
1-1
AWAY Louisville City
1.62 xG 1.26
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 6
370 Passes 327
15 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 30
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Birmingham Legion vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham Legion and Louisville City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Louisville City at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.62 to 1.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Birmingham Legion and 2.50 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Birmingham Legion vs Louisville City?

Birmingham Legion 1-1 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 04/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham Legion vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Birmingham Legion 28%, draw 21%, Louisville City 51%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Louisville City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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