Birmingham Legion 1-4 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 30 Jun 2024

📅30/06/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
33%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+3.9pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.1pp
33%
Away Win
39%
-6.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.6pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -9%
0.89/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.04
-15% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
348 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
12.8 Crosses 18.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham Legion
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Louisville City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.98 xG 1.55
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
333 Passes 342
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 5-0 HT 2-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
20.08.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 2-0 HT 2-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
23.07.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 1-2 HT 1-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
03.07.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 2-1 HT 1-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
03.04.2022 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 0-0 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
31.10.2021 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 0-1 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham Legion
1-4
AWAY Louisville City
1.55 xG 2.79
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 11
324 Passes 342
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Birmingham Legion vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City ran out comfortable winners over Birmingham Legion 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 33% — and on the day Louisville City made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Birmingham Legion had 50% of the ball to Louisville City's 50%, shots finished 12-19, expected goals 1.55 to 2.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Birmingham Legion and 1.50 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Birmingham Legion vs Louisville City?

Birmingham Legion 1-4 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham Legion vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham Legion win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Birmingham Legion 38%, draw 29%, Louisville City 33%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Birmingham Legion), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Birmingham Legion) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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