San Antonio 2-3 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 30 Jun 2024

📅30/06/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.48
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.43
6+ Goals
10%
12.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 28% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.7pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Antonio EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 33%
+13% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +6%
1.38/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.43
-16% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 78%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
18.1 Crosses 12.0
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Antonio
3W-1D-2L
AWAY New Mexico United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.49 xG 1.21
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
164 Passes 264
63% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 4
26.05.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-1 HT 2-1 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
13.08.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-3 HT 0-3 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
28.05.2023 San Antonio San Antonio 2-1 HT 2-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
18.09.2022 San Antonio San Antonio 1-1 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
24.04.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-1 HT 0-0 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
21.10.2021 New Mexico United New Mexico United 4-2 HT 1-2 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Antonio
2-3
AWAY New Mexico United
0.94 xG 1.03
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 4
358 Passes 149
86% Pass Accuracy 69%
28 Box Touches 14
37 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH San Antonio vs New Mexico United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United squeezed past San Antonio 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was San Antonio at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, San Antonio had 67% of the ball to New Mexico United's 33%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 0.94 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, San Antonio had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for San Antonio and 1.33 for New Mexico United.

What was the final score of San Antonio vs New Mexico United?

San Antonio 2-3 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 30/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Antonio vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Antonio win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split San Antonio 41%, draw 28%, New Mexico United 31%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (San Antonio), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (San Antonio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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