New Mexico United 2-1 San Antonio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
39%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.29
6+ Goals
9%
11.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.68 — our 30% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
44%
-8.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
39%
Away Win
30%
+8.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.7pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY San Antonio EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +12%
1.26/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.20
-2% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
330 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 72%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
16.5 Crosses 17.9
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY San Antonio
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.19 xG 1.59
57% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
268 Passes 178
69% Pass Accuracy 63%
16 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
13.08.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-3 HT 0-3 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
28.05.2023 San Antonio San Antonio 2-1 HT 2-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
18.09.2022 San Antonio San Antonio 1-1 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
24.04.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-1 HT 0-0 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
21.10.2021 New Mexico United New Mexico United 4-2 HT 1-2 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
26.09.2021 San Antonio San Antonio 0-1 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
2-1
AWAY San Antonio
1.26 xG 0.62
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
265 Passes 161
74% Pass Accuracy 64%
20 Box Touches 29
11 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs San Antonio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United edged past San Antonio 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day New Mexico United made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, New Mexico United had 57% of the ball to San Antonio's 43%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.26 to 0.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, San Antonio led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for New Mexico United and 1.50 for San Antonio.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs San Antonio?

New Mexico United 2-1 San Antonio in the USL Championship on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs San Antonio?

Before kick-off our model rated an San Antonio win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 35%, draw 26%, San Antonio 39%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (San Antonio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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