Indy Eleven 2-1 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
35%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.85
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-6.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.7pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 33%
-19% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +3%
1.25/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.74
-21% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 80%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
18.3 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Indy Eleven
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.86 xG 1.14
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
432 Passes 491
88% Pass Accuracy 89%
6 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
21.09.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-1 HT 0-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Indy Eleven
2-1
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.30 xG 0.82
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
228 Passes 468
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Indy Eleven vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Indy Eleven nicked a narrow win over Phoenix Rising 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Indy Eleven found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Indy Eleven had 36% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 64%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.30 to 0.82.

What was the final score of Indy Eleven vs Phoenix Rising?

Indy Eleven 2-1 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Indy Eleven vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a Indy Eleven win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Indy Eleven 38%, draw 27%, Phoenix Rising 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Indy Eleven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Indy Eleven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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