Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-0 Las Vegas Lights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.59
Over 2.5
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.62
2-3 Goals
39%
2.02
4-5 Goals
26%
2.63
6+ Goals
14%
6.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-10.5pp
23%
Draw
19%
+3.6pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+6.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.8pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 18%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -14%
2.13/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.84
+24% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
382 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
20.2 Crosses 14.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.94 xG 0.99
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
392 Passes 281
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.07.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-2 HT 1-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
04.09.2022 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 6-1 HT 2-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
31.10.2021 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-2 HT 1-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
1-0
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.34 xG 1.53
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
341 Passes 398
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
31 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Las Vegas Lights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies nicked a narrow win over Las Vegas Lights 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tampa Bay Rowdies as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 48% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 52%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 1.34 to 1.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 1.00 for Las Vegas Lights.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Las Vegas Lights?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-0 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Las Vegas Lights?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 56%, draw 23%, Las Vegas Lights 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
26 May 2024
02:00 Indy Eleven vs Phoenix Rising Analysis →
02:00 Miami FC vs North Carolina Analysis →
03:30 Memphis 901 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Analysis →
04:00 New Mexico United vs San Antonio Analysis →
05:00 Orange County SC vs Loudoun United Analysis →
05:00 Sacramento Republic vs Birmingham Legion Analysis →