Orange County SC 0-2 Loudoun United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.4
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.49
6+ Goals
9%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 30% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
50%
-9.1pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.4pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.4pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Loudoun United EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -12%
1.20/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.65
-17% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -27%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 78%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
16.7 Crosses 15.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orange County SC
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Loudoun United
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.73 xG 1.39
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
338 Passes 321
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.05.2024 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-2 HT 0-1 Loudoun United Loudoun United ABDK
16.07.2023 Loudoun United Loudoun United 1-3 HT 1-2 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
26.06.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 3-1 HT 1-1 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orange County SC
0-2
AWAY Loudoun United
0.38 xG 1.49
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 0
349 Passes 400
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Orange County SC vs Loudoun United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Loudoun United beat Orange County SC 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Orange County SC at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Orange County SC had 46% of the ball to Loudoun United's 54%, shots finished 6-9, expected goals 0.38 to 1.49.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Orange County SC had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Orange County SC and 1.33 for Loudoun United.

What was the final score of Orange County SC vs Loudoun United?

Orange County SC 0-2 Loudoun United in the USL Championship on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs Loudoun United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orange County SC win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 41%, draw 28%, Loudoun United 31%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Orange County SC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orange County SC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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