Orange County SC 1-2 Loudoun United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 8 May 2024

Orange County SC
1-2 HT 0-1
Loudoun United
📅08/05/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
USA - Open Cup – 2024

Orange County SC vs Loudoun United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
31%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.3
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
9%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 25% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.4pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.4pp
31%
Away Win
20%
+10.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.2pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Orange County SC v Loudoun United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Loudoun United EU Bookmakers 23%
-78% / -78% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-1% / -67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
329 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 75%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
19.0 Crosses –
0.0 Yellow Cards –

Orange County SC vs Loudoun United Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orange County SC
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Loudoun United
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.45 xG 1.65
45% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 7
292 Passes 358
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.07.2023 Loudoun United Loudoun United 1-3 HT 1-2 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
26.06.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 3-1 HT 1-1 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP

Orange County SC 1-2 Loudoun United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orange County SC
1-2
AWAY Loudoun United
2.28 xG 0.89
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
428 Passes 247
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
36 Box Touches 18
42 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Orange County SC vs Loudoun United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Loudoun United squeezed past Orange County SC 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Orange County SC at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Orange County SC had 62% of the ball to Loudoun United's 38%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 2.28 to 0.89 — the balance of chances actually favoured Orange County SC.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Orange County SC had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Orange County SC and 1.00 for Loudoun United.

What was the final score of Orange County SC vs Loudoun United?

Orange County SC 1-2 Loudoun United in the USA - Open Cup on 08/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs Loudoun United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orange County SC win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 46%, draw 23%, Loudoun United 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Orange County SC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orange County SC) ✓ BTTS Yes
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