Louisville City vs Birmingham Legion Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Louisville City v Birmingham Legion — Team-Based Signals
Louisville City vs Birmingham Legion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 2-0
Louisville City
USLP
1-2
HT 1-0
Birmingham Legion
USLP
2-1
HT 1-0
Birmingham Legion
USLP
Louisville City 4-2 Birmingham Legion — Actual Match Statistics
Louisville City saw off Birmingham Legion 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Louisville City had 39% of the ball to Birmingham Legion's 61%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.39 to 0.48.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Louisville City and 1.17 for Birmingham Legion.
What was the final score of Louisville City vs Birmingham Legion?
Louisville City 4-2 Birmingham Legion in the USL Championship on 15/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Birmingham Legion?
Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 58%, draw 21%, Birmingham Legion 22%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City) — while BTTS No went the other way.