Louisville City 4-2 Birmingham Legion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 15 Jun 2025

📅15/06/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
26%
X/2
8%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
66%
-8.5pp
21%
Draw
19%
+1.3pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+7.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.4pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 17%
+4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.91/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.48
+14% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 75%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
22.6 Crosses 14.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Birmingham Legion
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.87 xG 1.15
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
344 Passes 296
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2025 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-1 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
30.06.2024 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-4 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
30.03.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 5-0 HT 2-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
20.08.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 2-0 HT 2-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
23.07.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 1-2 HT 1-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
03.07.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 2-1 HT 1-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
4-2
AWAY Birmingham Legion
2.39 xG 0.48
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
206 Passes 396
68% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 9
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Birmingham Legion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City saw off Birmingham Legion 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Louisville City had 39% of the ball to Birmingham Legion's 61%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.39 to 0.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Louisville City and 1.17 for Birmingham Legion.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Birmingham Legion?

Louisville City 4-2 Birmingham Legion in the USL Championship on 15/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Birmingham Legion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 58%, draw 21%, Birmingham Legion 22%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✗ BTTS No
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