Lexington 2-1 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 15 Jun 2025

📅15/06/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.06
2-3 Goals
36%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.53
6+ Goals
12%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.06 — our 28% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
39%
-2.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lexington EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 37%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
1.21/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.25
-14% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 77%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
19.2 Crosses 12.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lexington
2-1
AWAY New Mexico United
1.57 xG 1.02
31% Ball Possession 69%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
210 Passes 589
77% Pass Accuracy 91%
22 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lexington vs New Mexico United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lexington edged past New Mexico United 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Lexington found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lexington had 31% of the ball to New Mexico United's 69%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.57 to 1.02.

What was the final score of Lexington vs New Mexico United?

Lexington 2-1 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 15/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lexington vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lexington win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Lexington 36%, draw 28%, New Mexico United 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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