Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 Miami FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 15 Jun 2025

📅15/06/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.8
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.18
Over 2.5
57%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
6%
2/1
11%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
51%
-2.0pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.8pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Miami FC EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.45/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.32
+10% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
357 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 80%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
16.8 Crosses 13.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Miami FC
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.16 xG 1.11
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
356 Passes 364
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.03.2025 Miami FC Miami FC 1-2 HT 1-2 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
25.08.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
12.04.2024 Miami FC Miami FC 2-5 HT 0-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
27.08.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
09.04.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-0 HT 1-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
23.10.2022 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-1 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
2-1
AWAY Miami FC
0.72 xG 1.42
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
370 Passes 389
86% Pass Accuracy 87%
29 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies edged past Miami FC 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Tampa Bay Rowdies as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 49% of the ball to Miami FC's 51%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 0.72 to 1.42 — the balance of chances actually favoured Miami FC.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 0.67 for Miami FC.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 Miami FC in the USL Championship on 15/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 49%, draw 22%, Miami FC 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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