Miami FC 1-2 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
5.09
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
51%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.59
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
3.05
6+ Goals
13%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
23%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
16%
+10.3pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.1pp
51%
Away Win
61%
-10.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.5pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miami FC EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 66%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
0.79/1.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.21
-30% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
308 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 82%
11.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
11.9 Crosses 19.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Miami FC
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.09 xG 2.38
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
391 Passes 348
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.08.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-0 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
12.04.2024 Miami FC Miami FC 2-5 HT 0-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
27.08.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
09.04.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-0 HT 1-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
23.10.2022 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-1 HT 0-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
12.06.2022 Miami FC Miami FC 1-2 HT 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miami FC
1-2
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.19 xG 1.39
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 7
289 Passes 376
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies nicked a narrow win over Miami FC 2-1 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tampa Bay Rowdies as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Miami FC had 45% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 55%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 1.19 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Miami FC and 2.67 for Tampa Bay Rowdies.

What was the final score of Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Miami FC 1-2 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Miami FC 27%, draw 22%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 51%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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