Orange County SC 0-3 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 23 Mar 2025

Orange County SC
0-3 HT 0-0
Monterey Bay
📅23/03/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
USL Championship – 2025

Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.73
6+ Goals
10%
16.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 30% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
9%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-5.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.9pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Orange County SC v Monterey Bay — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 28%
-6% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
1.27/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.50
-7% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 78%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
16.7 Crosses 18.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orange County SC
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Monterey Bay
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.32 xG 1.29
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
370 Passes 376
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.09.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-0 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
15.10.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-1 HT 0-1 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
02.07.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 3-1 HT 0-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
08.09.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-0 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
10.07.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 0-2 HT 0-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP

Orange County SC 0-3 Monterey Bay — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orange County SC
0-3
AWAY Monterey Bay
0.27 xG 2.01
50% Ball Possession 50%
4 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
365 Passes 363
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterey Bay swept aside Orange County SC 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Orange County SC at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Orange County SC had 50% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 50%, shots finished 4-17, expected goals 0.27 to 2.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Orange County SC and 0.80 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay?

Orange County SC 0-3 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orange County SC win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 45%, draw 25%, Monterey Bay 30%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Orange County SC), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orange County SC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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