New York City FC vs Toronto FC Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
New York City FC v Toronto FC — Team-Based Signals
New York City FC vs Toronto FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 2-0
Toronto FC
ABD
5-0
HT 3-0
Toronto FC
CONLK
1-0
HT 0-0
New York City FC
ABD
New York City FC 3-1 Toronto FC — Actual Match Statistics
New York City FC saw off Toronto FC 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had New York City FC as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, New York City FC had 55% of the ball to Toronto FC's 45%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.65 to 1.38.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York City FC had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for New York City FC and 0.67 for Toronto FC.
What was the final score of New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
New York City FC 3-1 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 04/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
Before kick-off our model rated a New York City FC win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 52%, draw 22%, Toronto FC 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York City FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.