Toronto FC 0-1 New York City FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.75
2-3 Goals
35%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
3.92
6+ Goals
9%
18.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 34% vs market 29.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.07
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
9%
13.05
X/1
15%
5.85
X/2
16%
5.68
X/X
10%
4.16
2/1
12%
32.0
2/2
10%
3.88
2/X
9%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+3.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.3pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-3.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.7pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY New York City FC EU Bookmakers 39%
-11% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -6%
1.22/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.26
-23% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 78%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
15.6 Crosses 14.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
1W-0D-5L
AWAY New York City FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.18 xG 2.11
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
390 Passes 436
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-3 HT 0-2 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
17.03.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 2-1 HT 1-1 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
24.09.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 3-0 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
27.07.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 5-0 HT 3-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC CONLK
30.04.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
25.04.2022 New York City FC New York City FC 5-4 HT 1-2 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
0-1
AWAY New York City FC
1.16 xG 1.18
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 8
0 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
273 Passes 294
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs New York City FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York City FC squeezed past Toronto FC 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day New York City FC made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Toronto FC had 48% of the ball to New York City FC's 52%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.16 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York City FC led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Toronto FC and 3.00 for New York City FC.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs New York City FC?

Toronto FC 0-1 New York City FC in the USA - Major League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toronto FC win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 39%, draw 28%, New York City FC 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Toronto FC) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toronto FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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