New York Red Bulls 1-0 CF Montreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.82
Over 2.5
53%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.07
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.52
6+ Goals
11%
14.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.52 — our 23% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.31
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
9%
14.0
X/1
18%
4.34
X/2
9%
9.33
X/X
11%
4.83
2/1
7%
24.65
2/2
10%
7.56
2/X
6%
15.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+5.4pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +9%
1.65/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.60
-5% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
381 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
18.0 Crosses 15.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York Red Bulls
2W-2D-2L
AWAY CF Montreal
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.69 xG 1.30
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
283 Passes 362
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.07.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 2-2 HT 1-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
20.06.2024 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-2 HT 2-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
21.05.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 2-1 HT 2-1 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
23.04.2023 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-0 HT 1-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
01.09.2022 CF Montreal CF Montreal 0-1 HT 0-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
09.04.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 1-2 HT 1-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York Red Bulls
1-0
AWAY CF Montreal
1.26 xG 0.63
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
301 Passes 304
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York Red Bulls edged past CF Montreal 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had New York Red Bulls as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, New York Red Bulls had 50% of the ball to CF Montreal's 50%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.26 to 0.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.50 for CF Montreal.

What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal?

New York Red Bulls 1-0 CF Montreal in the USA - Major League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split New York Red Bulls 48%, draw 26%, CF Montreal 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York Red Bulls) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (New York Red Bulls) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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