FC Cincinnati 2-1 Sporting Kansas City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 26 Apr 2025

FC Cincinnati
2-1 HT 1-0
Sporting Kansas City
📅26/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2025

FC Cincinnati vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.21
Over 2.5
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.23
2-3 Goals
37%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
2.83
6+ Goals
12%
8.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.23 — our 27% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.97
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
15.1
X/1
21%
4.23
X/2
9%
11.0
X/X
7%
6.3
2/1
9%
20.6
2/2
10%
8.39
2/X
8%
16.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
59%
-8.6pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.8pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+6.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.8pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FC Cincinnati v Sporting Kansas City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Kansas City EU Bookmakers 22%
-3% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.72/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.76
-8% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
392 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 80%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
14.4 Crosses 15.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

FC Cincinnati vs Sporting Kansas City Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Cincinnati
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Sporting Kansas City
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.54 xG 1.75
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
424 Passes 339
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.07.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-3 HT 1-2 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City CONLK
29.10.2020 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
07.04.2019 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD

FC Cincinnati 2-1 Sporting Kansas City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Cincinnati
2-1
AWAY Sporting Kansas City
0.86 xG 0.47
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
459 Passes 368
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs Sporting Kansas City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati squeezed past Sporting Kansas City 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had FC Cincinnati as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, FC Cincinnati had 54% of the ball to Sporting Kansas City's 46%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 0.86 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sporting Kansas City led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.67 for Sporting Kansas City.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs Sporting Kansas City?

FC Cincinnati 2-1 Sporting Kansas City in the USA - Major League on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs Sporting Kansas City?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 51%, draw 24%, Sporting Kansas City 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati)
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
26 Apr 2025
21:30 Toronto FC vs New York City FC Analysis →
23:30 Philadelphia Union vs DC United Analysis →
23:30 New York Red Bulls vs CF Montreal Analysis →