New York City FC 2-1 Toronto FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.13
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 30% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.12
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.5
X/1
15%
3.8
X/2
6%
10.2
X/X
10%
4.9
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
11%
8.35
2/X
8%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-6.1pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+2.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.9pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York City FC EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
2.05/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.93
+4% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
396 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
16.4 Crosses 11.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York City FC
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Toronto FC
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.86 xG 1.26
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
470 Passes 379
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 3-0 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
27.07.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 5-0 HT 3-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC CONLK
30.04.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
25.04.2022 New York City FC New York City FC 5-4 HT 1-2 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
02.04.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-1 HT 2-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
08.08.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-2 HT 0-2 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York City FC
2-1
AWAY Toronto FC
1.38 xG 1.30
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 4
384 Passes 315
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH New York City FC vs Toronto FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York City FC squeezed past Toronto FC 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had New York City FC as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, New York City FC had 53% of the ball to Toronto FC's 47%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.38 to 1.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York City FC had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for New York City FC and 1.50 for Toronto FC.

What was the final score of New York City FC vs Toronto FC?

New York City FC 2-1 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York City FC vs Toronto FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York City FC win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 51%, draw 28%, Toronto FC 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York City FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (New York City FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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