Sporting Kansas City 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 17 Mar 2024

Sporting Kansas City
2-1 HT 2-1
San Jose Earthquakes
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.51
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 29% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.38
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.8
X/1
15%
4.18
X/2
10%
8.62
X/X
10%
4.83
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
7%
6.56
2/X
7%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.0pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Kansas City v San Jose Earthquakes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Kansas City EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +9%
1.71/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.78
+5% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
20.7 Crosses 16.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Kansas City
2W-3D-1L
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.23 xG 1.30
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
414 Passes 384
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.10.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 0-0 HT 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
27.08.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 3-0 HT 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
16.04.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 3-0 HT 2-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
28.08.2022 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 1-0 HT 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
23.05.2022 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
22.07.2021 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 1-1 HT 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD

Sporting Kansas City 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Kansas City
2-1
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.03 xG 1.36
51% Ball Possession 49%
5 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
452 Passes 424
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Kansas City squeezed past San Jose Earthquakes 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting Kansas City as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting Kansas City had 51% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 49%, shots finished 5-13, expected goals 1.03 to 1.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Kansas City had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 0.83 for San Jose Earthquakes.

What was the final score of Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Sporting Kansas City 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Kansas City win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sporting Kansas City 50%, draw 26%, San Jose Earthquakes 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Kansas City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Kansas City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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