Austin 2-2 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
37%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.71
6+ Goals
10%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 29% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.54
1/2
5%
27.0
1/X
7%
13.3
X/1
17%
6.31
X/2
12%
4.9
X/X
13%
4.44
2/1
7%
33.5
2/2
20%
3.18
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+3.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
37%
Away Win
41%
-4.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.4pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austin EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 45%
-6% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -34%
1.01/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.26
+13% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -30%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 74%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
18.9 Crosses 18.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austin
2-2
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.19 xG 2.45
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
307 Passes 258
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Austin vs Philadelphia Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austin and Philadelphia Union shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Austin had 54% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 46%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.19 to 2.45.

What was the final score of Austin vs Philadelphia Union?

Austin 2-2 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austin vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated an Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Austin 36%, draw 27%, Philadelphia Union 37%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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