Toronto FC vs New York City FC Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toronto FC v New York City FC — Team-Based Signals
Toronto FC vs New York City FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 2-0
Toronto FC
ABD
5-0
HT 3-0
Toronto FC
CONLK
1-0
HT 0-0
New York City FC
ABD
5-4
HT 1-2
Toronto FC
ABD
2-1
HT 2-0
New York City FC
ABD
Toronto FC 2-3 New York City FC — Actual Match Statistics
New York City FC nicked a narrow win over Toronto FC 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Toronto FC at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Toronto FC had 60% of the ball to New York City FC's 40%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.90 to 2.50.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York City FC led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Toronto FC and 2.67 for New York City FC.
What was the final score of Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Toronto FC 2-3 New York City FC in the USA - Major League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toronto FC win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 42%, draw 28%, New York City FC 30%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.