Columbus Crew 1-2 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒02:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.06
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.09
6+ Goals
11%
9.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.06 — our 26% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.2
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
19%
4.24
X/2
9%
9.52
X/X
13%
5.28
2/1
13%
22.3
2/2
10%
6.89
2/X
6%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-5.8pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.1pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+3.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.6pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Columbus Crew EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 25%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +33%
1.66/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.74
+2% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
392 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 79%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
17.9 Crosses 11.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Columbus Crew
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.05 xG 1.24
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
475 Passes 274
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-3 HT 2-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
21.08.2023 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
21.05.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-2 HT 2-1 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
28.08.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-2 HT 1-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
18.07.2022 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
28.08.2021 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 3-2 HT 1-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Columbus Crew
1-2
AWAY FC Cincinnati
0.78 xG 1.16
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
428 Passes 358
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 27
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati nicked a narrow win over Columbus Crew 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Columbus Crew at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Columbus Crew had 54% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 46%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 0.78 to 1.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Columbus Crew had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Columbus Crew and 1.50 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati?

Columbus Crew 1-2 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a Columbus Crew win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Columbus Crew 48%, draw 27%, FC Cincinnati 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Columbus Crew) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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