New York Red Bulls 4-2 New England Revolution — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
19%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.89
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.16
6+ Goals
12%
10.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.88
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.2
X/1
19%
3.76
X/2
7%
12.0
X/X
10%
5.88
2/1 EV+ ✗
16%
22.3
2/2
6%
9.26
2/X
7%
17.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 16% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-4.2pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.9pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+2.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.6pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 21%
-8% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -11%
1.58/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/2.19
-17% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
381 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
18.8 Crosses 15.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York Red Bulls
3W-1D-2L
AWAY New England Revolution
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.04 xG 1.12
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
286 Passes 286
73% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 1-0 HT 1-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
23.07.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-0 HT 0-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution CONLK
09.07.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 2-1 HT 0-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
11.09.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 2-1 HT 0-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
03.04.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 0-1 HT 0-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
01.08.2021 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 2-3 HT 1-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York Red Bulls
4-2
AWAY New England Revolution
3.39 xG 1.18
33% Ball Possession 67%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
230 Passes 563
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York Red Bulls beat New England Revolution 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had New York Red Bulls as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, New York Red Bulls had 33% of the ball to New England Revolution's 67%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 3.39 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York Red Bulls had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.00 for New England Revolution.

What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution?

New York Red Bulls 4-2 New England Revolution in the USA - Major League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York Red Bulls vs New England Revolution?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split New York Red Bulls 57%, draw 24%, New England Revolution 20%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York Red Bulls), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New York Red Bulls) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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