Philadelphia Union 2-3 Orlando City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 12 May 2024

Philadelphia Union
2-3 HT 1-2
Orlando City
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.55
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.38
6+ Goals
10%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.55 — our 29% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.66
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.45
X/1
13%
4.44
X/2
11%
7.43
X/X
13%
4.79
2/1
10%
24.45
2/2
13%
5.46
2/X
6%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Philadelphia Union v Orlando City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Orlando City EU Bookmakers 31%
+7% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +31%
1.80/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.43
+15% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 79%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
18.4 Crosses 14.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Philadelphia Union
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Orlando City
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.48 xG 0.95
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
296 Passes 351
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
22.06.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 2-2 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
26.03.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 1-2 HT 1-2 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
11.09.2022 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 5-1 HT 2-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
24.07.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 0-1 HT 0-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
11.05.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 2-1 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABDK
19.09.2021 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-1 HT 1-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD

Philadelphia Union 2-3 Orlando City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
2-3
AWAY Orlando City
3.85 xG 1.25
61% Ball Possession 39%
29 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
420 Passes 252
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
47 Box Touches 27
29 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando City nicked a narrow win over Philadelphia Union 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Philadelphia Union at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Philadelphia Union had 61% of the ball to Orlando City's 39%, shots finished 29-13, expected goals 3.85 to 1.25 — on chances, Philadelphia Union could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.33 for Orlando City.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City?

Philadelphia Union 2-3 Orlando City in the USA - Major League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 43%, draw 27%, Orlando City 29%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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