Atlanta United 2-3 DC United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 12 May 2024

Atlanta United
2-3 HT 1-2
DC United
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Atlanta United vs DC United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
3.14
Over 2.5
58%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.38
No
45%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
7.9
2-3 Goals
37%
2.3
4-5 Goals
28%
2.4
6+ Goals
13%
4.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.08
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
11%
4.51
X/2
9%
9.82
X/X
9%
6.8
2/1
8%
19.0
2/2
10%
6.04
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.85
Value flag · 2/X at 13.85 — our 11% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.4pp
27%
Draw
22%
+4.9pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
28%
+13.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
72%
-13.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
68%
-13.8pp
45%
BTTS No
32%
+13.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlanta United v DC United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY DC United EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
2.00/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.42
+29% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -15%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
443 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
18.2 Crosses 16.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Atlanta United vs DC United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
5W-1D-0L
AWAY DC United
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.59 xG 1.24
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
386 Passes 274
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.09.2023 DC United DC United 1-1 HT 0-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
11.06.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 3-1 HT 1-1 DC United DC United ABD
28.08.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 3-2 HT 0-0 DC United DC United ABD
03.04.2022 DC United DC United 0-1 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
18.09.2021 Atlanta United Atlanta United 3-2 HT 1-0 DC United DC United ABD
22.08.2021 DC United DC United 1-2 HT 0-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD

Atlanta United 2-3 DC United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
2-3
AWAY DC United
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
479 Passes 241
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs DC United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

DC United nicked a narrow win over Atlanta United 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Atlanta United at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Atlanta United had 64% of the ball to DC United's 36%, shots finished 15-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlanta United had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Atlanta United and 1.17 for DC United.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs DC United?

Atlanta United 2-3 DC United in the USA - Major League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs DC United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 48%, draw 27%, DC United 25%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atlanta United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atlanta United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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