Zira 4-1 Sebail FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
60%
-4.2pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
19%
Away Win
17%
+2.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.5pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zira EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.74/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.93
-16% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
366 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zira
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Sebail FK
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
3 Corners 7
08.02.2024 Zira Zira 3-0 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERK
30.01.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-2 HT 0-0 Zira Zira AZERK
22.01.2024 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Zira Zira AZERS
28.10.2023 Zira Zira 2-2 HT 1-2 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
19.08.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-2 HT 1-1 Zira Zira AZERS
14.04.2023 Zira Zira 3-1 HT 0-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
POST-MATCH Zira vs Sebail FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zira swept aside Sebail FK 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Zira as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zira had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Zira and 0.83 for Sebail FK.

What was the final score of Zira vs Sebail FK?

Zira 4-1 Sebail FK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zira vs Sebail FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zira win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Zira 56%, draw 25%, Sebail FK 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zira) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zira) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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4 Aug 2024
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