Gnistan 3-0 VPS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 4 Aug 2024

Gnistan
3-0 HT 2-0
VPS
📅04/08/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2024

Gnistan vs VPS Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
45%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.97
2-3 Goals
43%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
3.13
6+ Goals
9%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.97 — our 28% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.0
1/2
9%
24.85
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
12%
6.14
X/2
14%
5.27
X/X
14%
5.04
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
22%
3.23
2/X
6%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
34%
-5.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
45%
Away Win
40%
+5.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.4pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gnistan v VPS — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY VPS EU Bookmakers 43%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +30%
0.89/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/0.64
-59% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +77%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
330 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 83%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
19.4 Crosses 16.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Gnistan vs VPS Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
2W-0D-4L
AWAY VPS
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.43 xG 1.66
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
186 Passes 367
63% Pass Accuracy 77%
8 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
20.04.2024 VPS VPS 3-2 HT 2-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
16.10.2021 Gnistan Gnistan 1-4 HT 1-4 VPS VPS FINY
18.07.2021 Gnistan Gnistan 2-0 HT 1-0 VPS VPS FİN2
12.05.2021 VPS VPS 2-0 HT 0-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
25.10.2020 VPS VPS 3-5 HT 3-2 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
30.08.2020 Gnistan Gnistan 1-2 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN2

Gnistan 3-0 VPS — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gnistan
3-0
AWAY VPS
1.35 xG 1.44
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
233 Passes 527
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gnistan vs VPS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan cruised past VPS 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was VPS at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Gnistan had 34% of the ball to VPS's 66%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 1.35 to 1.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, VPS led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Gnistan and 2.33 for VPS.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs VPS?

Gnistan 3-0 VPS in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs VPS?

Before kick-off our model rated an VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 29%, draw 27%, VPS 45%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (VPS), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (VPS) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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