Valour 2-1 Forge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 4 Aug 2024

Valour
2-1 HT 1-0
Forge
📅04/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Kanada - Premier League – 2024

Valour vs Forge Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
42%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.55
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.55 — our 31% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+5.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
41%
Away Win
47%
-5.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.3pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valour v Forge — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valour EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Forge EU Bookmakers 51%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
0.69/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.14
-10% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +50%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
277 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 82%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
17.1 Crosses 18.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Valour vs Forge Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valour
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Forge
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.01 xG 1.69
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
291 Passes 376
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.06.2024 Forge Forge 2-1 HT 2-0 Valour Valour CAPL
27.04.2024 Forge Forge 2-1 HT 0-0 Valour Valour CAPL
17.09.2023 Valour Valour 2-3 HT 1-1 Forge Forge CAPL
16.07.2023 Forge Forge 1-1 HT 0-0 Valour Valour KAPL
17.06.2023 Valour Valour 2-0 HT 1-0 Forge Forge KAPL
13.05.2023 Forge Forge 3-2 HT 1-1 Valour Valour CAPL

Valour 2-1 Forge — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valour
2-1
AWAY Forge
1.32 xG 1.71
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 11
241 Passes 499
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
13 Box Touches 37
8 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Valour vs Forge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valour nicked a narrow win over Forge 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Forge at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Valour had 35% of the ball to Forge's 65%, shots finished 8-21, expected goals 1.32 to 1.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Forge led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Valour and 1.83 for Forge.

What was the final score of Valour vs Forge?

Valour 2-1 Forge in the Kanada - Premier League on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valour vs Forge?

Before kick-off our model rated an Forge win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Valour 32%, draw 26%, Forge 41%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Forge) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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