Tlaxcala 3-2 Correcaminos UAT — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.9
Over 2.5
58%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-6.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
49%
-7.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
51%
+7.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+2.4pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tlaxcala EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Correcaminos UAT EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -15%
1.25/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.70
-15% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
336 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tlaxcala
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Correcaminos UAT
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
02.03.2024 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 1-1 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
02.11.2023 Tlaxcala 0-1 HT 0-0 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
22.04.2023 Tlaxcala 0-0 HT 0-0 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
24.08.2022 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 0-2 HT 0-1 Tlaxcala MEK2
25.03.2022 Tlaxcala 4-0 HT 1-0 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
02.09.2021 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 1-1 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
POST-MATCH Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos UAT
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tlaxcala nicked a narrow win over Correcaminos UAT 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Tlaxcala made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tlaxcala had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tlaxcala and 0.50 for Correcaminos UAT.

What was the final score of Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos UAT?

Tlaxcala 3-2 Correcaminos UAT in the Mexico - Primera A on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos UAT?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tlaxcala win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Tlaxcala 39%, draw 27%, Correcaminos UAT 34%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tlaxcala), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tlaxcala) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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