Union Comercio vs Melgar Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Union Comercio v Melgar — Team-Based Signals
Union Comercio vs Melgar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 2-0
Union Comercio
PER
1-1
HT 0-0
Melgar
PER
1-1
HT 1-0
Union Comercio
PER
1-1
HT 0-0
Melgar
PER
1-0
HT 1-0
Union Comercio
PER
Union Comercio 2-1 Melgar — Actual Match Statistics
Union Comercio squeezed past Melgar 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Melgar at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Union Comercio had 50% of the ball to Melgar's 50%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.09 to 0.95.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Union Comercio and 1.50 for Melgar.
What was the final score of Union Comercio vs Melgar?
Union Comercio 2-1 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Union Comercio vs Melgar?
Before kick-off our model rated an Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Union Comercio 27%, draw 30%, Melgar 43%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.