BG Pathum Utd 1-3 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 4 Aug 2026

📅04/08/2026 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
7.95
Draw
11%
6.26
Away
72%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
Over 2.5
66%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.56
No
53%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
8%
1/X
3%
X/1
7%
X/2
29%
X/X
5%
2/1
5%
2/2
35%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
9%
+7.9pp
11%
Draw
12%
-1.4pp
72%
Away Win
78%
-6.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.2pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BG Pathum Utd EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 84%
+94% / +94% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
4.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/0.72
+150% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +26%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
239 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 426 · 84%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
7.0 Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BG Pathum Utd
1-3
AWAY Aston Villa
3 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH BG Pathum Utd vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa saw off BG Pathum Utd 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 72%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (66%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 3-17.

What was the final score of BG Pathum Utd vs Aston Villa?

BG Pathum Utd 1-3 Aston Villa in the Friendlies on 04/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BG Pathum Utd vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split BG Pathum Utd 17%, draw 11%, Aston Villa 72%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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