Independiente Medellin 2-1 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 4 Sep 2025

📅04/09/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.34
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.19
No
52%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
70%
-9.0pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.1pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+6.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.5pp
52%
BTTS No
58%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 14%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.01/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.26
-51% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +73% / +57%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
343 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
0W-4D-0L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.75 xG 1.18
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
340 Passes 200
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
27.08.2025 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOLK
28.04.2025 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
27.08.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 2-2 HT 2-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
18.02.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 0-2 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
FAQ Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza CEIF
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Independiente Medellin edged past Fortaleza CEIF 2-1 in the Colombia - Cup on 4 Sep 2025. Half-time: 1-0.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 44% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours are even at 0 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.00 for Fortaleza CEIF.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Independiente Medellin 2-1 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Cup on 04/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 61%, draw 21%, Fortaleza CEIF 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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