Bohemians 0-2 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - FAI Cup, 4 Oct 2024

Bohemians
0-2 HT 0-1
Derry City
📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Ireland - FAI Cup – 2024

Bohemians vs Derry City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
35%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.64
Over 2.5
38%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.88
No
59%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.65
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.43
6+ Goals
7%
23.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.65 — our 36% vs market 31.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.17
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
15%
5.69
X/2
15%
5.27
X/X
13%
3.89
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.75
2/X
6%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.4pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.9pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-1.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
57%
+4.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
43%
-4.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.2pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bohemians v Derry City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bohemians EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 40%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.34/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.46/0.67
-36% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / +150%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
284 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.0

Bohemians vs Derry City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bohemians
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Derry City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.10 xG 1.14
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
254 Passes 333
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.06.2024 Bohemians Bohemians 1-2 HT 1-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
10.05.2024 Derry City Derry City 1-0 HT 0-0 Bohemians Bohemians İRL
15.03.2024 Bohemians Bohemians 2-1 HT 1-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
25.08.2023 Bohemians Bohemians 2-2 HT 1-2 Derry City Derry City İRL
09.06.2023 Derry City Derry City 0-0 HT 0-0 Bohemians Bohemians İRL
12.05.2023 Bohemians Bohemians 0-1 HT 0-1 Derry City Derry City İRL

Bohemians 0-2 Derry City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bohemians
0-2
AWAY Derry City
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 9
0 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bohemians vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City saw off Bohemians 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Derry City found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bohemians had 62% of the ball to Derry City's 38%, shots finished 9-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Bohemians and 1.17 for Derry City.

What was the final score of Bohemians vs Derry City?

Bohemians 0-2 Derry City in the Ireland - FAI Cup on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bohemians vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bohemians win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Bohemians 39%, draw 26%, Derry City 35%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Bohemians) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bohemians) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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