Hobro IK 4-1 Roskilde — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
4.54
2-3 Goals
42%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.89
6+ Goals
10%
8.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.54 — our 23% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.16
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.2
X/1
10%
4.19
X/2
9%
9.39
X/X
9%
5.86
2/1
8%
20.9
2/2
12%
6.56
2/X
6%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-7.6pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.5pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.7pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hobro IK EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Roskilde EU Bookmakers 25%
-9% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -23%
1.70/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.13
-31% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
382 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 76%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
21.2 Crosses 12.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hobro IK
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Roskilde
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.24 xG 0.31
45% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
305 Passes 457
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Roskilde Roskilde 0-2 HT 0-1 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN1
13.10.2015 Roskilde Roskilde 0-0 HT 0-0 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hobro IK
4-1
AWAY Roskilde
2.34 xG 0.38
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
486 Passes 432
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
35 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hobro IK vs Roskilde
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hobro IK cruised past Roskilde 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hobro IK as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Hobro IK had 53% of the ball to Roskilde's 47%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 2.34 to 0.38.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Hobro IK had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hobro IK and 0.00 for Roskilde.

What was the final score of Hobro IK vs Roskilde?

Hobro IK 4-1 Roskilde in the Denmark 1st Division on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hobro IK vs Roskilde?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hobro IK win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Hobro IK 48%, draw 25%, Roskilde 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hobro IK), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hobro IK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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