Dunkerque 2-1 Troyes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.86
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.07
6+ Goals
9%
19.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 31% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.0
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.5
X/1
21%
4.58
X/2
15%
6.69
X/X
16%
4.24
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
9%
5.11
2/X
5%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Troyes EU Bookmakers 32%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -4%
1.11/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.36
-14% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +36%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
20.7 Crosses 15.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dunkerque
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Troyes
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.18 xG 1.85
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
224 Passes 432
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.02.2024 Troyes Troyes 1-2 HT 1-1 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
05.08.2023 Dunkerque Dunkerque 2-2 HT 1-2 Troyes Troyes FR2
08.05.2021 Troyes Troyes 2-0 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
08.01.2021 Dunkerque Dunkerque 0-0 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dunkerque
2-1
AWAY Troyes
1.03 xG 1.80
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 20
7 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 8
474 Passes 264
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 32
19 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dunkerque vs Troyes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dunkerque nicked a narrow win over Troyes 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Dunkerque as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Dunkerque had 62% of the ball to Troyes's 38%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 1.03 to 1.80 — the balance of chances actually favoured Troyes.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dunkerque and 1.25 for Troyes.

What was the final score of Dunkerque vs Troyes?

Dunkerque 2-1 Troyes in the France - Ligue 2 on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunkerque vs Troyes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dunkerque win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Dunkerque 43%, draw 26%, Troyes 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dunkerque) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dunkerque) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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